Brent crude rose to $97.47 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $92.26. Brent has gained about 8% over the past week as renewed attacks have reduced tanker traffic through one of the world's most important energy corridors.
Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler showed that an average of only about 10 commodity vessels a day passed through the Strait over the previous 10 days, the lowest level recorded since May. The decline is significant because Hormuz remains a critical route for crude and refined-product exports from the Gulf.
The disruption is affecting more than crude prices. Refiners, shipping companies and fuel distributors are facing greater uncertainty over delivery schedules, insurance costs and vessel availability. Any prolonged reduction in maritime traffic could tighten supplies of refined products, particularly diesel, increasing costs across transport and industrial supply chains.
The situation also creates a challenge for producers. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to maintain its current oil-output policy for October, leaving the market without an immediate additional production response to compensate for possible shipping disruptions.
For energy-importing economies, sustained prices near $100 would raise the cost of transportation, manufacturing and electricity generation. Governments could face renewed pressure to subsidise fuel or provide targeted support to households, potentially complicating fiscal policy at a time when public finances remain constrained.
The shipping sector is also reassessing operational risks. Maritime intelligence analysts have warned that the distinction between military and commercial targets is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain, potentially forcing operators to reconsider routes and insurance coverage.
Goldman Sachs has warned that oil could reach $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping intensify. Such a scenario would significantly increase the inflationary impact of the conflict and could prompt central banks to delay monetary easing or resume tightening.
The longer-term consequences would depend on the duration of the disruption. If shipping normalises, some of the risk premium could quickly unwind. If restrictions persist, however, companies may be forced to secure alternative supply routes, increase inventories and reassess the geographic concentration of energy infrastructure.
What to watch: Markets will monitor tanker traffic through Hormuz, developments affecting Gulf production and refining capacity, OPEC+ policy and movements in freight and insurance costs. A sustained decline in shipping volumes would increase the risk of a broader global energy-supply shock.
