Tinubu's government has pursued major reforms, including the removal of the long-standing petrol subsidy and changes to the foreign-exchange regime. The measures have aimed to improve public finances, attract investment and correct economic distortions, but they have also contributed to higher living costs and intensified pressure on households.
The political significance of those reforms is now increasing. As campaigns begin, the administration must defend the economic consequences of policies that have produced both stabilisation benefits and significant short-term costs.
For businesses and investors, the election matters because policy continuity is becoming an important consideration. Companies planning capital expenditure need greater clarity over taxation, foreign-exchange policy, energy pricing, regulation and public spending. Any uncertainty surrounding the post-election direction could influence investment timing.
Tinubu's economic record will therefore be judged against more than headline growth figures. Businesses will also be watching inflation, currency stability, consumer purchasing power and the government's ability to improve infrastructure and security.
The election comes as Nigeria seeks to strengthen its position as one of Africa's largest investment destinations. The country's reform programme has attracted attention from international investors, but high operating costs and infrastructure constraints remain significant challenges.
Political competition could also influence the pace and direction of economic reform. A campaign centred on reversing unpopular policies could increase uncertainty, while a clear commitment to reform combined with measures to protect vulnerable households could strengthen confidence.
The administration's challenge is to demonstrate that the immediate sacrifices associated with reform can translate into stronger productive capacity, investment and employment.
What to watch: campaign economic platforms, inflation and currency trends, investor sentiment, fiscal policy commitments and the treatment of subsidy and foreign-exchange reforms.
